It has been used to forecast the diffusion and sales of many types of new products including services and technologies. I had used the Bass Model long before I met its creator. I had used it to forecast a variety of products e. I have even worked on litigation matters where an important issue was the appropriate and correct use of the Bass Model to make the forecast that served as the basis for damages calculations.
My quest to build a tool to ease the complexities of new product sales forecasting for us forecasters in the trenches, led me to my first meeting with Frank Bass.
That meeting resulted in collaboration on scholarly research and eventually marriage ended by his death in Frank and I funded Frank M. The paper did not provide empirical evidence in support of the model, which was provided later in the Bass Model paper. When Professor Bass first published the Bass Model, a mathematical theory of product and innovation diffusion was just being born. Three years before in , Fourt and Woodlock had published their pioneering paper about the diffusion of frequently purchased products.
In the first edition of Professor Everett M. Later, as Professor Bass manipulated the equation with the goal of finding the solution to this nonlinear differential equation, he discovered that if instead of the constant q he made the constant be q divided by the constant potential market M in the well-established tradition of cleverly chosen constants , the equation would work out very nicely; thus, the Bass Model principle became. We will later define these symbols and their relationships.
The Bass Model assumes that sales of a new product are primarily driven by word-of-mouth from satisfied customers. At the launch of a new product, mostly innovators purchase it. Early owners who like the new product influence others to adopt it. Those who purchase primarily because of the influence of owners are called imitators. The other variables in the Bass Model principle above, which are calculated from M, p, q and t, are: f t -- the portion of M that adopts at time t.
F t -- the portion of M that have adopted by time t, a t -- adopters or adoptions at t and A t -- cumulative adopters or adoptions at t. The preferred Bass Model equations for use in curve fitting and forecasting is the solution to the differential equation, mathematically it is For additional information on these formulae, see the Bass Math page. Bass, Frank M. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Purdue Working Paper. A new product growth for model consumer durables.
Management Science 15 Comments on "A new product growth for model consumer durables. Fourt, Louis A. Early prediction of market success of new grocery products. Journal of Marketing 25 2 31— Mansfield, Edwin. Technical change and the rate of imitation. Econometrica 29 — Rogers, Everett M.
Diffusion of innovations. Both models include three parameters to describe the two factors which affect product diffusion in the market and the market growth. The Bass Forecasting model technical note is a supplement to the Bass Model overview provided in the Principles of Marketing Engineering. This note provides additional analytic background on the model. View other Technical Notes.
What you put in The Bass Forecasting model technical note is a supplement to the material provided in the Principles of Marketing Engineering. This note provides additional analytic background to the model and may be freely distributed to your students. To view other technical notes, please visit our Technical Notes page. The following business cases are available to demonstrate the Bass Forecasting Model using Marketing Engineering for Excel software:.
Bass Forecasting Model What you put in
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